UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Manchester, United Kingdom
27 Jul 2024
Bantamweight
VS
57%
Hadley
43%
Loughran
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hadley
This is a genuine toss-up — Hadley at 57% vs Loughran at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hadley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Loughran throws more volume but Hadley connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Hadley
Loughran
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
68"
29+
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Hadley
Loughran
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.7
37.2
44.0
Performance Avg
35.0
45
Quality of Victory
25
67
Momentum Score
39
Hadley
Loughran
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
12
2
Body
5
10
Leg
8
RangeRange
29Distance24
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Hadley
Loughran
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hadley
Loughran
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/15 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Hadley
Loughran
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
67
39
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Hadley
Loughran
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hadley
Loughran
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
HadleyLoughran
Strike Zones
Hadley
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedLoughran
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hadley targets the head (60% of attacks) — Loughran absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Loughran targets the head (48% of attacks) — Hadley absorbs 48% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hadley
RND
Loughran
0/0R00/0
Hadley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Loughran · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Hadley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cameron SmothermanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Caolan LoughranRating 4.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Cody DurdenRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
W · KO · R1
Malcolm GordonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Loughran · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Nathan FletcherRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Jake HadleyRating 6.2Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Angel PachecoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 6.2Decision
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