★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
Atlanta, USA
21 Apr 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
82%
Jones
18%
Evans
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jones
Jones is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 56 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Jones has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Evans has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jones
Evans
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'0"
84"+
Reach
75"
38+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jones
Evans
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
15.3
74.6
Performance Avg
53.1
61
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
25
Jones
Evans
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
58%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
0
2
Body
2
7
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance2
5Clinch1
1Ground0
Jones
Evans
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jones
Evans
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
24
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/29 fights
Chin rating based on
23/27 fights
Jones
Evans
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
25
19-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Jones
Evans
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
43%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
6
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jones
Evans
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
JonesEvans
Strike Zones
Jones
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedEvans
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the head (64% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Evans targets the body (67% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jones
RND
Evans
0/0R00/0
Jones · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Evans · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Jones · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneRating 6.8Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithRating 5.7Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
Evans · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10