UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
Sao Paulo, Brazil
28 Oct 2017
Welterweight
VS
49%
Santos
51%
Griffin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Elizeu
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
"Capoeira"
25 – 10
5'11"73" reachOrthodox39 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Max
Max Griffin
"Pain"
20 – 13
Well-Rounded3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Griffin

This is a genuine toss-up — Santos at 49% vs Griffin at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Santos throws more volume but Griffin connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Santos's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Griffin has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Santos
Griffin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
+76"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Griffin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.3
46.4
49.3
Performance Avg
39.0
39
Quality of Victory
37
45
Momentum Score
74
Santos
Griffin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
7
7
Body
4
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance7
11Clinch5
0Ground0
Santos
Griffin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Griffin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
48
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/35 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Santos
Griffin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
74
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Santos
Griffin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
38%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Santos
Griffin
Striking4.9 / 4.6Volume5.7 / 5.8Grappling2.0 / 1.5Wrestling1.4 / 1.1Submission0.9 / 0.0Pressure5.1 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Santos
Strike Zones
Griffin
Santos
Attacking
16HEAD7BODY5LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD4BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Griffin
Attacking
7HEAD4BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD7BODY5LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (57% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Griffin targets the head (58% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Santos
RND
Griffin
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W5.1W6.1W5.2W5.0W4.8L4.5W6.5L6.3W4.5W6.4L5.0W3.9L3.4L2015-052018-052020-072025-032025-08
WinLossTrend

Griffin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.3L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L7.0W5.4W4.5W6.1L4.6W7.6L5.9W4.8L6.2L6.8L2016-082019-022021-032024-022026-04
WinLossTrend

Santos · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Neil MagnyRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R2
Chidi NjokuaniRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Zachary ScrogginRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Upcoming
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

Griffin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesRating 7.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

News & Media

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Max Griffin
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