UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
Melbourne, Australia
5 Oct 2019
Heavyweight
VS
79%
Tafa
21%
Castro
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:10
Justin
Justin Tafa
"Bad Man"
7 – 5
6'0"74" reachSouthpaw32 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 66
YD
Yorgan De Castro
"The Mad Titan"
6 – 3
Knockout Artist3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tafa

Tafa is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Tafa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tafa's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tafa
Castro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
32+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tafa
Castro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
17.5
53.8
Performance Avg
46.0
60
Quality of Victory
60
98
Momentum Score
29
Tafa
Castro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
30%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Tafa
Castro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Tafa
Castro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/9 fights
Tafa
Castro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
29
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Tafa
Castro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tafa
Castro
Striking10.0 / 10.0Volume0.9 / 0.5Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.3 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Tafa
Strike Zones
Castro
Tafa
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Castro
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tafa targets the head (83% of attacks) — Castro absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Castro targets the head (50% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tafa
RND
Castro
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Tafa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0101.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.0L2.7L2019-102021-052023-092025-02
WinLossTrend

Castro · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0106.6W5.5L5.5L1.5L2019-102020-052020-102021-04
WinLossTrend

Tafa · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · KO · R1
Austen LaneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Upcoming
Austen Lane
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Parker PorterRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

Castro · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Jarjis DanhoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Carlos FelipeRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Greg HardyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Justin TafaRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10

News & Media

Justin Tafa · Yorgan De Castro
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