METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
Melbourne, Australia
5 Oct 2019
Heavyweight
VS
77%
Tafa
23%
Castro
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:10
★ Official Result
Yorgan De CastrowinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:10
def. Justin Tafa · UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Tafa
→
Actual result
Castro wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Tafa is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Tafa's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
TafaCastro
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Tafa
Castro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
32+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tafa
Castro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.5
17.5
53.8
Performance Avg
46.0
60
Quality of Victory
60
98
Momentum Score
29
Tafa
Castro
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
8.3
Style: Pressure
7.8
0.9
Style: Volume
0.5
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Tafa
Castro
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Tafa
Castro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/9 fights
Tafa
Castro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
29
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Tafa
Castro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tafa
Castro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
TafaCastro
Strike Zones
Tafa
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedCastro
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tafa targets the head (83% of attacks) — Castro absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Castro targets the head (50% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tafa
RND
Castro
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Tafa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraKO/TKO
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · KO · R1
Austen LaneKO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Upcoming
Austen LaneUFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Parker PorterKO/TKO
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
Castro · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Jarjis DanhoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Carlos FelipeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Greg HardyDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Justin TafaKO/TKO
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10