UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Sept 2020
Flyweight
VS
51%
Kara-France
49%
Royval
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kara-France
This is a genuine toss-up — Kara-France at 51% vs Royval at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Royval has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kara-France's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Royval has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kara-France
Royval
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'9"
69"+
Reach
68"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Kara-France
Royval
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.5
50.3
47.5
Performance Avg
48.2
38
Quality of Victory
42
80
Momentum Score
62
Kara-France
Royval
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
4
0
Body
2
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Kara-France
Royval
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kara-France
Royval
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/37 fights
Chin rating based on
13/26 fights
Kara-France
Royval
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
62
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Kara-France
Royval
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
57%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kara-France
Royval
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Kara-FranceRoyval
Strike Zones
Kara-France
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedRoyval
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kara-France targets the head (67% of attacks) — Royval absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Royval targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kara-France absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kara-France
RND
Royval
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0
Kara-France · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Royval · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Kara-France · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 4Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Steve ErcegRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · KO · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Askar AskarovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
Royval · Last 5
Upcoming
Lone'er KavanaghUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · KO · R1
Manel KapeRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02