METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Middleweight
VS
51%
Strickland
49%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Sean StricklandwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Paulo Costa · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Strickland
→
Actual result
Strickland wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Strickland at 51% vs Costa at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Strickland throws more volume but Costa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Strickland's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StricklandCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Strickland
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
72"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Strickland
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.7
55.3
50.9
Performance Avg
52.9
37
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
59
Strickland
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
1.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
59%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
37
Head
6
11
Body
21
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
47Distance32
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Strickland
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Strickland
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/38 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Strickland
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
59
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Strickland
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
63%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Strickland
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
StricklandCosta
Strike Zones
Strickland
Attacking
49 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedCosta
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
49 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Strickland targets the head (76% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the body (66% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 66% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Strickland
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Strickland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Strickland · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
Costa · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08