UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Middleweight
VS
51%
Strickland
49%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Sean
Sean Strickland
31 – 7
6'1"76" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Paulo
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16 – 4
Striker2-fight win streak35 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'1"
CFR 55

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Strickland

This is a genuine toss-up — Strickland at 51% vs Costa at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Strickland throws more volume but Costa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Strickland's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Strickland
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
72"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Strickland
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.7
55.3
50.9
Performance Avg
52.9
37
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
59
Strickland
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
59%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
37
Head
6
11
Body
21
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
47Distance32
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Strickland
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.9
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Strickland
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/38 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Strickland
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
59
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Strickland
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
63%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Strickland
Costa
Striking4.2 / 7.6Volume6.8 / 4.3Grappling2.0 / 0.9Wrestling1.4 / 0.6Submission0.6 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.9
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Strickland
Strike Zones
Costa
Strickland
Attacking
37HEAD11BODY1LEGS49 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD21BODY5LEGS32 absorbed
Costa
Attacking
6HEAD21BODY5LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD11BODY1LEGS49 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Strickland targets the head (76% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the body (66% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 66% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Strickland
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0

Strickland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5W4.5W6.6L4.7W2.0L5.2W4.5W6.6W4.5W4.5W5.4W3.6L6.5L5.9W5.9W5.9W7.4L5.5W7.4L6.7W6.4W2014-032017-112022-022024-062026-05
WinLossTrend

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W3.5L6.3L4.5W6.4L6.6L5.5W7.4W2017-032018-072021-102024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Strickland · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

Costa · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 7.4
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R3
Luke RockholdRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08

News & Media

Sean Strickland · Paulo Costa
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