Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

Newark, USA

1 Jun 2024

Middleweight

51%

Strickland

49%

Costa

Win Probability

Decision

Round 5 · 5:00

Sean Strickland

31 – 7

6'1"76" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 58

Paulo Costa

"The Eraser"

16 – 4

Striker2-fight win streak35 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'1"

CFR 55

★ Official Result

Sean StricklandwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00

def. Paulo Costa · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Strickland

→

Actual result

Strickland wins

Decision · R5

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Strickland at 51% vs Costa at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Strickland's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

StricklandCosta

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Strickland

Costa

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"

Height

6'1"

76"+

Reach

72"

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Strickland

Costa

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

57.7

55.3

50.9

Performance Avg

52.9

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Strickland

Costa

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.2

/ 10

7.6

/ 10

4.5

Style: Pressure

6.4

6.8

Style: Volume

4.3

5 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

47Distance32

2Clinch0

0Ground0

Strickland

Costa

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.0

/ 10

0.9

/ 10

1.4

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.6

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strickland

Costa

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

9 fights ago

Last KO loss

6 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

25/38 fights

Chin rating based on

12/20 fights

Strickland

Costa

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

2-fight 🔥 win streak

W · Dec · R5

W · KO · R3

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R5

Last 5

W · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Strickland

Costa

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

33%

63%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Strickland

Costa

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

4.2

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

7.6

2.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.9

1.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.6

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

4.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.4

6.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.3

Strickland

Strike Zones

Costa

Strickland

Attacking

49 landed

Absorbing

32 absorbed

Costa

Attacking

32 landed

Absorbing

49 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Strickland targets the head (76% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 76% of strikes there

🎯Costa targets the body (66% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 66% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Strickland

RND

Costa

0/0R00/0

Strickland · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Khamzat Chimaev

Decision

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

W · KO · R3

Anthony Hernandez

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02

L · Dec · R5

Dricus Du Plessis

Decision

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

W · Dec · R5

Paulo Costa

Decision

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

L · Dec · R5

Dricus Du Plessis

Decision

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

Costa · Last 5

W · KO · R3

Azamat Murzakanov

KO/TKO

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04

W · Dec · R3

Roman Kopylov

Decision

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07

L · Dec · R5

Sean Strickland

Decision

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

L · Dec · R3

Robert Whittaker

Decision

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

W · Dec · R3

Luke Rockhold

Decision

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08

News & Media

Sean Strickland · Paulo Costa

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