UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jul 2024
Lightweight
VS
85%
Holobaugh
15%
Kruschewsky
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holobaugh
Holobaugh is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holobaugh has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 37 points.
Striking split: Kruschewsky throws more volume but Holobaugh connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holobaugh's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holobaugh
Kruschewsky
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+73"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holobaugh
Kruschewsky
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.1
5.5
31.2
Performance Avg
0.0
37
Quality of Victory
0
20
Momentum Score
0
Holobaugh
Kruschewsky
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
18
8
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance12
5Clinch2
0Ground8
Holobaugh
Kruschewsky
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holobaugh
Kruschewsky
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Holobaugh
Kruschewsky
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Holobaugh
Kruschewsky
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holobaugh
Kruschewsky
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HolobaughKruschewsky
Strike Zones
Holobaugh
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedKruschewsky
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holobaugh targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kruschewsky absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Kruschewsky targets the head (82% of attacks) — Holobaugh absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holobaugh
RND
Kruschewsky
0/0R00/0
Holobaugh · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Kruschewsky · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Holobaugh · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jordan LeavittRating 3Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Kaynan KruschewskyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Trey OgdenRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Sub · R2
Austin HubbardRating 5.2Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Kruschewsky · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 5.5Decision
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L · KO · R1
Elves BrenerRating 2.3KO/TKO
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