UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Fairfax, USA
4 Apr 2015
Lightweight
VS
82%
Chiesa
18%
Clarke
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiesa
Chiesa is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Clarke throws more volume but Chiesa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Clarke has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Chiesa
Clarke
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
73"
38+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Clarke
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
10.9
53.3
Performance Avg
33.8
43
Quality of Victory
37
50
Momentum Score
10
Chiesa
Clarke
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
36%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
33
4
Body
11
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
29Distance46
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Chiesa
Clarke
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
4.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiesa
Clarke
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
40
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
7/16 fights
Chiesa
Clarke
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
10
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Chiesa
Clarke
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
9
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiesa
Clarke
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
ChiesaClarke
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedClarke
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (86% of attacks) — Clarke absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Clarke targets the head (69% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiesa
RND
Clarke
0/0R00/0
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Clarke · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
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L · KO · R2
Alex WhiteRating 2.8KO/TKO
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