UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
53%
Tate
47%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Miesha
Miesha Tate
"Cupcake"
20 – 10
5'6"65" reachOrthodox39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 53
Raquel
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
16 – 10
Well-Rounded37 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tate

This is a genuine toss-up — Tate at 53% vs Pennington at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tate's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pennington has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tate
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
65"
Reach
+67"
39
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tate
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.5
46.8
42.5
Performance Avg
46.8
38
Quality of Victory
32
94
Momentum Score
80
Tate
Pennington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
0
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground11
Tate
Pennington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.7
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
2.3
2
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tate
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
13 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/30 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Tate
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
80
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Tate
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
23%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tate
Pennington
Striking2.4 / 1.4Volume5.6 / 7.5Grappling3.7 / 3.7Wrestling2.6 / 2.6Submission2.9 / 2.3Pressure4.5 / 3.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.3
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
Tate
Strike Zones
Pennington
Tate
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Pennington
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tate targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the head (73% of attacks) — Tate absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tate
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0

Tate · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.0L2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.6W2.7L6.1L5.5W5.9L6.3L6.3W5.6L2013-042015-012016-112023-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Pennington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W6.3L5.0W5.6L6.0W4.5W4.5W5.4W5.2L6.7L5.3W5.6L4.5W4.5W6.6W4.5W4.9W5.1W7.0L2013-112016-042019-072022-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Tate · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Sub · R3
Julia AvilaRating 6.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Lauren MurphyRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Ketlen VieiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · KO · R3
Marion ReneauRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Aspen LaddRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Sub · R2
Macy ChiassonRating 6.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Miesha Tate · Raquel Pennington
← Back to fights