★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Jun 2017
Featherweight
VS
44%
Aldo
56%
Holloway
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:13
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holloway
This is a genuine toss-up — Aldo at 44% vs Holloway at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holloway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Aldo's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Aldo
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
70"+
Reach
69"
39
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldo
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.5
56.2
53.6
Performance Avg
56.8
49
Quality of Victory
47
40
Momentum Score
63
Aldo
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
2.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
59
2
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance21
1Clinch2
0Ground41
Aldo
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldo
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/42 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Aldo
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
63
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Aldo
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
52%
4
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aldo
Holloway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
AldoHolloway
Strike Zones
Aldo
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
64 absorbedHolloway
Attacking
64 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aldo targets the head (71% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (92% of attacks) — Aldo absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aldo
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Aldo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Aldo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 5Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04