UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Anaheim, USA
12 Nov 2011
Bantamweight
VS
95%
Caceres
5%
Escovedo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Caceres
Caceres is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Caceres has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.
Caceres has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Caceres
Escovedo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
73"+
Reach
72"
37+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Caceres
Escovedo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
2.1
42.2
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
76
Momentum Score
0
Caceres
Escovedo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
3
5
Body
4
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
21Distance8
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Caceres
Escovedo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Escovedo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
3/26 fights
Caceres
Escovedo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Caceres
Escovedo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Escovedo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CaceresEscovedo
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedEscovedo
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (59% of attacks) — Escovedo absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Escovedo targets the body (50% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Escovedo
0/0R00/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Escovedo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
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UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
Escovedo · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · KO · R2
Takeya MizugakiRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
L · Dec · R3
Renan BaraoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · 2011-05