UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Uniondale, USA
22 Jul 2017
Featherweight
VS
65%
Burgos
35%
Pepey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Burgos
Burgos holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Pepey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pepey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Burgos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Burgos's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pepey has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Burgos
Pepey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
75"+
Reach
73"
35+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burgos
Pepey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.9
16.9
50.0
Performance Avg
47.8
35
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
46
Burgos
Pepey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
38%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
42
Head
12
4
Body
2
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
34Distance14
8Clinch1
8Ground0
Burgos
Pepey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burgos
Pepey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Burgos
Pepey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Burgos
Pepey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burgos
Pepey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
BurgosPepey
Strike Zones
Burgos
Attacking
50 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedPepey
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
50 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burgos targets the head (84% of attacks) — Pepey absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Pepey targets the head (80% of attacks) — Burgos absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burgos
RND
Pepey
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0
Burgos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Pepey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Burgos · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 5.3Decision
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L · KO · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Josh EmmettRating 5.6Decision
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W · KO · R3
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UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
Pepey · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Mirsad BekticRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Shane BurgosRating 5.5Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Mike de la TorreRating 5Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Andre FiliRating 5.7Submission
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