UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Elmont, USA
16 Jul 2022
Middleweight
VS
40%
Grant
60%
Stoltzfus
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stoltzfus
Stoltzfus holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Grant has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Grant throws more volume but Stoltzfus connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Grant's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stoltzfus has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Grant
Stoltzfus
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
75"
41
Age
+34
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Grant
Stoltzfus
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.2
34.6
37.0
Performance Avg
38.9
37
Quality of Victory
45
59
Momentum Score
10
Grant
Stoltzfus
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.2
36%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
4
1
Body
1
3
Leg
7
RangeRange
15Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Grant
Stoltzfus
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Grant
Stoltzfus
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
26
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/17 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Grant
Stoltzfus
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
10
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Grant
Stoltzfus
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Grant
Stoltzfus
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
GrantStoltzfus
Strike Zones
Grant
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedStoltzfus
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Grant targets the head (73% of attacks) — Stoltzfus absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Stoltzfus targets the legs (58% of attacks) — Grant absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Grant
RND
Stoltzfus
0/0R00/0
Grant · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Stoltzfus · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Grant · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Sergey KhandozhkoRating 2.8KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Stefan SekulicRating 4.5Decision
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Daniel RodriguezRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
Stoltzfus · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Decision
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Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 5KO/TKO
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