UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Flyweight
VS
37%
Seery
63%
Smolka
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
NS
Neil Seery
"2Tap"
16 – 13
5'4"64" reachOrthodox46 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
LS
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'9"
CFR 27

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smolka

Smolka holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Seery has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Smolka has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Seery
Smolka
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'9"
64"
Reach
+68"
46
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Seery
Smolka
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.5
26.6
37.0
Performance Avg
46.5
33
Quality of Victory
46
58
Momentum Score
60
Seery
Smolka
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.2
40%
Strike Accuracy
51%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
4
0
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
3Clinch4
0Ground1
Seery
Smolka
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Seery
Smolka
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
12
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/29 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Seery
Smolka
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
60
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Seery
Smolka
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Seery
Smolka
Striking0.9 / 5.9Volume6.2 / 2.9Grappling4.3 / 2.6Wrestling3.0 / 1.8Submission3.3 / 2.5Pressure3.6 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Seery
Strike Zones
Smolka
Seery
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Smolka
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Seery targets the head (86% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Smolka targets the head (50% of attacks) — Seery absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Seery
RND
Smolka
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Seery · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L5.2W7.0L5.3L2014-032015-012015-102017-07
WinLossTrend

Smolka · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.4L5.5L5.6L5.7L5.9W1.7L5.0W1.5L5.2W1.5L4.8L2014-012016-072018-112021-122022-05
WinLossTrend

Seery · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 5.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
L · Dec · R3
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Sub · R2
Jon Delos ReyesRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · Dec · R3
Chris BealRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Smolka · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09

News & Media

Neil Seery · Louis Smolka
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