UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Barueri, Brazil
20 Dec 2014
Featherweight
VS
78%
Elkins
22%
Dias
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Elkins
Elkins is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Elkins has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Elkins throws more volume but Dias connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Elkins
Dias
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Dias
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
12.7
46.3
Performance Avg
30.0
35
Quality of Victory
25
66
Momentum Score
50
Elkins
Dias
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.7
38%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
8
1
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
8Distance10
1Clinch1
2Ground1
Elkins
Dias
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Dias
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
90
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
8/29 fights
Elkins
Dias
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
50
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Elkins
Dias
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elkins
Dias
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
ElkinsDias
Strike Zones
Elkins
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedDias
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (91% of attacks) — Dias absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Dias targets the head (67% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elkins
RND
Dias
0/0R00/0
Elkins · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Dias · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9Decision
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UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12