★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 69: Shootout
Houston, USA
7 Apr 2007
Welterweight
VS
43%
Serra
57%
St-Pierre
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:25
MS
Matt Serra
"The Terra"
11 – 7
5'6"68" reachOrthodox51 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
GS
Georges St-Pierre
"Rush"
26 – 2
Well-Rounded13-fight win streak45 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: St-Pierre

This is a genuine toss-up — Serra at 43% vs St-Pierre at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

St-Pierre has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Serra's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

St-Pierre has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Serra
St-Pierre
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'11"
68"
Reach
+76"
51
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Serra
St-Pierre
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.2
24.6
53.3
Performance Avg
67.2
56
Quality of Victory
51
52
Momentum Score
100
Serra
St-Pierre
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.2
37%
Strike Accuracy
57%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
3
Body
0
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance6
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Serra
St-Pierre
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Serra
St-Pierre
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/18 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Serra
St-Pierre
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
100
Current form
13-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Serra
St-Pierre
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Serra
St-Pierre
Striking3.9 / 4.3Volume5.6 / 6.6Grappling2.5 / 2.6Wrestling1.8 / 1.9Submission1.4 / 1.5Pressure4.5 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.5
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Serra
Strike Zones
St-Pierre
Serra
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY4LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
St-Pierre
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY4LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Serra targets the head (65% of attacks) — St-Pierre absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯St-Pierre targets the head (67% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Serra
RND
St-Pierre
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Serra · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0L4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W2.1L5.5L5.0W5.5L2001-052003-022006-112010-022010-09
WinLossTrend

St-Pierre · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W4.5W5.1W1.5L4.5W5.1W5.1W4.5W5.4W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W2004-012006-032008-082012-112017-11
WinLossTrend

Serra · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04

St-Pierre · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
W · Dec · R5
Johny HendricksRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
W · Dec · R5
Nick DiazRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Dec · R5
Carlos ConditRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · Dec · R5
Jake ShieldsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04

News & Media

Matt Serra · Georges St-Pierre
← Back to fights