MarQuel Mederos vs Austin Hubbard — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Mexico City, Mexico

29 Mar 2025

Lightweight

67%

Mederos

33%

Hubbard

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

MarQuel Mederos

11 – 1

5'10"69" reachOrthodox29 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 66

Austin Hubbard

"Thud"

17 – 10

Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"

CFR 32

★ Official Result

MarQuel MederoswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Austin Hubbard · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Mederos

→

Actual result

Mederos wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Mederos holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Hubbard has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Hubbard has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MederosHubbard

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Mederos

Hubbard

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"

Height

5'10"

69"

Reach

+71"

29+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Mederos

Hubbard

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

65.7

31.7

59.5

Performance Avg

28.7

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Mederos

Hubbard

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.5

/ 10

0.7

/ 10

4.8

Style: Pressure

1.0

8.0

Style: Volume

6.7

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

5Distance5

2Clinch0

8Ground1

Mederos

Hubbard

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.8

/ 10

1.8

/ 10

1.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.3

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Mederos

Hubbard

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

100

Never stopped

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

5/12 fights

Chin rating based on

12/27 fights

Mederos

Hubbard

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

W · KO · R2

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

Mederos

Hubbard

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

25%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mederos

Hubbard

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

4.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

0.7

1.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.8

1.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.3

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

4.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

1.0

8.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.7

Mederos

Strike Zones

Hubbard

Mederos

Attacking

15 landed

Absorbing

6 absorbed

Hubbard

Attacking

6 landed

Absorbing

15 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Mederos targets the head (60% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 60% of strikes there

🎯Hubbard targets the head (67% of attacks) — Mederos absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mederos

RND

Hubbard

0/0R00/0

Mederos · Last 5

W · KO · R2

Mason Jones

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08

Upcoming

Chris Padilla

Decision

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04

W · Dec · R3

Mark Choinski

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

W · Dec · R3

Austin Hubbard

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Landon Quinones

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

Hubbard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Rongzhu

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08

L · Dec · R3

MarQuel Mederos

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · Dec · R3

Alexander Hernandez

Decision

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

W · Dec · R3

Michal Figlak

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

L · Sub · R2

Kurt Holobaugh

Submission

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

MarQuel Mederos · Austin Hubbard

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