UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
66%
Mederos
34%
Hubbard
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MarQuel
MarQuel Mederos
11 – 1
5'10"69" reachOrthodox29 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Austin
Austin Hubbard
"Thud"
17 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 32

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mederos

Mederos holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Hubbard has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mederos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hubbard has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mederos
Hubbard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
69"
Reach
+71"
29+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mederos
Hubbard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.8
31.7
55.0
Performance Avg
28.7
25
Quality of Victory
26
100
Momentum Score
41
Mederos
Hubbard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.6
62%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
4
2
Body
1
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance5
2Clinch0
8Ground1
Mederos
Hubbard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mederos
Hubbard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Mederos
Hubbard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
41
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Mederos
Hubbard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mederos
Hubbard
Striking2.0 / 0.7Volume10.0 / 6.7Grappling2.4 / 1.8Wrestling1.7 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.0 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
10.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Mederos
Strike Zones
Hubbard
Mederos
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY4LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Hubbard
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY4LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mederos targets the head (60% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Hubbard targets the head (67% of attacks) — Mederos absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mederos
RND
Hubbard
0/0R00/0

Mederos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W2024-022025-032025-06
WinLossTrend

Hubbard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W5.7L4.2W2.2L4.5W5.7L2.8L4.5W6.4L6.8L6.0L2019-052020-062021-082024-102025-08
WinLossTrend

Mederos · Last 4

Upcoming
Chris Padilla
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Mark ChoinskiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Landon QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02

Hubbard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
MarQuel MederosRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Michal FiglakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Kurt HolobaughRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

MarQuel Mederos · Austin Hubbard
← Back to fights