METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
Vancouver, Canada
11 Jun 2011
Lightweight
VS
36%
Rocha
64%
Cerrone
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Donald CerronewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Vagner Rocha · UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cerrone
→
Actual result
Cerrone wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Cerrone holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Rocha has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Cerrone throws more volume but Rocha connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rocha's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cerrone has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RochaCerrone
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Rocha
Cerrone
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
73"
44
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rocha
Cerrone
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
28.2
39.7
Performance Avg
53.0
50
Quality of Victory
47
36
Momentum Score
63
Rocha
Cerrone
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
2.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
49%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
15
3
Body
7
3
Leg
18
RangeRange
18Distance38
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Rocha
Cerrone
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rocha
Cerrone
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
38/53 fights
Rocha
Cerrone
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
63
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Rocha
Cerrone
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
70%
0
KO / TKO Wins
10
1
Submission Wins
6
0
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rocha
Cerrone
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.6
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
RochaCerrone
Strike Zones
Rocha
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedCerrone
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rocha targets the head (67% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Cerrone targets the legs (45% of attacks) — Rocha absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rocha
RND
Cerrone
0/0R00/0
Rocha · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Rocha · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Jake MatthewsRating 3.8Submission
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L · KO · R1
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W · Sub · R2
Cody McKenzieRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
L · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
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L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
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Upcoming
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L · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
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