UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Boston, USA
19 Aug 2023
Middleweight
VS
44%
Petroski
56%
Meerschaert
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Meerschaert
This is a genuine toss-up — Petroski at 44% vs Meerschaert at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Meerschaert has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Meerschaert throws more volume but Petroski connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Petroski's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Meerschaert has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Petroski
Meerschaert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+77"
34+
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Petroski
Meerschaert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.3
56.7
45.2
Performance Avg
48.2
34
Quality of Victory
50
63
Momentum Score
91
Petroski
Meerschaert
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
39
6
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance27
1Clinch9
0Ground6
Petroski
Meerschaert
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
7.3
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Petroski
Meerschaert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/19 fights
Chin rating based on
26/59 fights
Petroski
Meerschaert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
91
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Petroski
Meerschaert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
11
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Petroski
Meerschaert
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
7.3
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.1
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
9.2
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
PetroskiMeerschaert
Strike Zones
Petroski
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
42 absorbedMeerschaert
Attacking
42 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Petroski targets the head (60% of attacks) — Meerschaert absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Meerschaert targets the head (93% of attacks) — Petroski absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Petroski
RND
Meerschaert
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Petroski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Meerschaert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Petroski · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Cody BrundageRating 3.3KO/TKO
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Meerschaert · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5Decision
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Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
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