METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Lightweight
VS
58%
Patterson
42%
Ashmouz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:15
★ Official Result
Yanal AshmouzwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:15
def. Sam Patterson · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Patterson
→
Actual result
Ashmouz wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Patterson at 58% vs Ashmouz at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Patterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PattersonAshmouz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Patterson
Ashmouz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'9"
78"+
Reach
69"
30+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Patterson
Ashmouz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
72.6
52.1
62.5
Performance Avg
45.5
57
Quality of Victory
43
98
Momentum Score
58
Patterson
Ashmouz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.4
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
9.1
Style: Pressure
5.0
1.4
Style: Volume
5.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
14
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground13
Patterson
Ashmouz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Patterson
Ashmouz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
Patterson
Ashmouz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
58
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Patterson
Ashmouz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Patterson
Ashmouz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
1.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
PattersonAshmouz
Strike Zones
Patterson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedAshmouz
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Patterson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ashmouz absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ashmouz targets the head (93% of attacks) — Patterson absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Patterson
RND
Ashmouz
0/0R00/0
Patterson · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Michael PageDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Trey WatersKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Danny BarlowKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Kiefer CrosbieSubmission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
Ashmouz · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Quillan SalkilldDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Trevor PeekDecision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
W · KO · R1
Sam PattersonKO/TKO
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03