UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Lightweight
VS
57%
Patterson
43%
Ashmouz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:15
Sam
Sam Patterson
14 – 3
6'3"78" reachOrthodox30 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 69
Yanal
Yanal Ashmouz
"Red Fox"
8 – 2
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Patterson

This is a genuine toss-up — Patterson at 57% vs Ashmouz at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Patterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Striking split: Patterson throws more volume but Ashmouz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Patterson
Ashmouz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'9"
78"+
Reach
69"
30+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Patterson
Ashmouz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.2
52.1
60.9
Performance Avg
45.5
57
Quality of Victory
43
85
Momentum Score
58
Patterson
Ashmouz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
1.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
55%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
14
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground13
Patterson
Ashmouz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Patterson
Ashmouz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
4/10 fights
Patterson
Ashmouz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
58
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Patterson
Ashmouz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Patterson
Ashmouz
Striking6.3 / 6.0Volume1.3 / 5.0Grappling4.0 / 1.2Wrestling2.8 / 0.8Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure9.0 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Patterson
Strike Zones
Ashmouz
Patterson
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD0BODY1LEGS15 absorbed
Ashmouz
Attacking
14HEAD0BODY1LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Patterson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ashmouz absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ashmouz targets the head (93% of attacks) — Patterson absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Patterson
RND
Ashmouz
0/0R00/0

Patterson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0102.4L5.0W5.0W5.7W5.6W6.3L2023-032024-012024-072025-032025-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Ashmouz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.5
0106.7W6.8L4.8W7.6L2023-032023-072024-092025-06
WinLossTrend

Patterson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Trey WatersRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Danny BarlowRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Kiefer CrosbieRating 5
Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Yohan LainesseRating 5
Submission
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

Ashmouz · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Quillan SalkilldRating 7.6
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Trevor PeekRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
W · KO · R1
Sam PattersonRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

News & Media

Sam Patterson · Yanal Ashmouz
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