UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2
Las Vegas, USA
21 Nov 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
47%
Griffin
53%
Ortiz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ortiz
This is a genuine toss-up — Griffin at 47% vs Ortiz at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Ortiz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Griffin throws more volume but Ortiz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Griffin's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ortiz has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Griffin
Ortiz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
77"+
Reach
74"
47+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Griffin
Ortiz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.2
20.4
52.0
Performance Avg
57.3
42
Quality of Victory
57
82
Momentum Score
85
Griffin
Ortiz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.0
36%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
4
4
Body
1
9
Leg
0
RangeRange
40Distance5
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Griffin
Ortiz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Griffin
Ortiz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.4 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/26 fights
Chin rating based on
27/31 fights
Griffin
Ortiz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
82
85
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Griffin
Ortiz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Griffin
Ortiz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
GriffinOrtiz
Strike Zones
Griffin
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedOrtiz
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Griffin targets the head (68% of attacks) — Ortiz absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Ortiz targets the head (80% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Griffin
RND
Ortiz
0/0R00/0
Griffin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Ortiz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Griffin · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Tito OrtizRating 4.5Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08
W · Dec · R3
Rich FranklinRating 4.5Decision
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Tito OrtizRating 4.5Decision
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11
L · KO · R1
Anderson SilvaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
Ortiz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Forrest GriffinRating 5.5Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · KO · R1
Rogerio NogueiraRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
L · KO · R2
Rashad EvansRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
W · Sub · R1
Ryan BaderRating 5Submission
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
L · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 5.5Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10