METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago, USA
16 Aug 2025
Featherweight
VS
64%
Murphy
36%
Pico
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:21
★ Official Result
Lerone MurphywinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:21
def. Aaron Pico · UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Murphy
→
Actual result
Murphy wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Murphy holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Pico has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Murphy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Pico has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MurphyPico
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Murphy
Pico
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
70"
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Pico
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.5
37.1
57.7
Performance Avg
35.0
36
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
46
Murphy
Pico
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
2.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
4
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance7
1Clinch3
1Ground3
Murphy
Pico
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Murphy
Pico
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
2/19 fights
Murphy
Pico
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Murphy
Pico
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Murphy
Pico
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
MurphyPico
Strike Zones
Murphy
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedPico
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pico absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Pico targets the head (54% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Murphy
RND
Pico
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Murphy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Pico · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Murphy · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Aaron PicoRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Edson BarbozaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
Pico · Last 2
W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 4.5Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Lerone MurphyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08