UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago, USA
16 Aug 2025
Featherweight
VS
64%
Murphy
36%
Pico
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:21
Lerone
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
17 – 1
5'9"73" reachOrthodox34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 66
Aaron
Aaron Pico
14 – 5
Well-Rounded29 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'8"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Murphy

Murphy holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Pico has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Murphy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Pico has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Murphy
Pico
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
70"
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Pico
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.5
37.1
57.7
Performance Avg
35.0
36
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
46
Murphy
Pico
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
4
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance7
1Clinch3
1Ground3
Murphy
Pico
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Murphy
Pico
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
2/19 fights
Murphy
Pico
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Murphy
Pico
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Murphy
Pico
Striking5.1 / 1.0Volume7.1 / 9.0Grappling1.6 / 2.4Wrestling1.1 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Murphy
Strike Zones
Pico
Murphy
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD5BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Pico
Attacking
7HEAD5BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pico absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Pico targets the head (54% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 54% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Murphy
RND
Pico
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Murphy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.1W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.8W5.0W5.2W4.6W5.1W6.8L2020-072023-032024-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Pico · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0103.0L4.5W2025-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Murphy · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Aaron PicoRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

Pico · Last 2

W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Lerone MurphyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08

News & Media

Lerone Murphy · Aaron Pico
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