UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Neer
Omaha, USA
17 Sept 2008
Lightweight
VS
66%
Diaz
34%
Neer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
ND
Nate Diaz
2213
6'0"76" reachSouthpaw41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 35
JN
Josh Neer
"The Dentist"
3616
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Diaz

Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Neer has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Striking split: Diaz throws more volume but Neer connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Neer has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Diaz
Neer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
72"
41+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Neer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
18.1
53.4
Performance Avg
39.5
50
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
100
Diaz
Neer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
6
3
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch5
9Ground1
Diaz
Neer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.8
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
Neer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
Strikes absorbed / min
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
15/52 fights
Diaz
Neer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · R2
Diaz
Neer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
10
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Diaz
Neer
Striking2.4 / 0.8Volume3.2 / 3.5Grappling5.6 / 4.8Wrestling3.9 / 3.4Submission6.3 / 5.0Pressure7.0 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Diaz
Strike Zones
Neer
Diaz
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Neer
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (64% of attacks) — Neer absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Neer targets the head (86% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Diaz
RND
Neer
0/0R00/0

Diaz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W6.0L5.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.7L4.6W7.1W7.5L4.5W4.8L6.6L5.9W2007-062009-092011-122016-032022-09
WinLossTrend

Neer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L5.0W4.5W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L4.2W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.7L2005-082006-082009-082012-062013-02
WinLossTrend

Diaz · Last 5

W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08

Neer · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Sub · R1
Justin EdwardsRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Mike PyleRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
W · R2
Keith WisniewskiRating 4.2
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10

News & Media

Nate Diaz · Josh Neer
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