UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Brasilia, Brazil
14 Mar 2020
Welterweight
VS
76%
Santos
24%
Kunchenko
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Santos
Santos is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Kunchenko has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos
Kunchenko
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
70"
39+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Kunchenko
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.3
14.2
49.3
Performance Avg
35.0
39
Quality of Victory
25
45
Momentum Score
56
Santos
Kunchenko
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
8
3
Body
5
6
Leg
8
RangeRange
16Distance19
1Clinch2
2Ground0
Santos
Kunchenko
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Kunchenko
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
96
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/35 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
Santos
Kunchenko
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
56
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Santos
Kunchenko
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Kunchenko
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
SantosKunchenko
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedKunchenko
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (53% of attacks) — Kunchenko absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Kunchenko targets the head (38% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Kunchenko
0/0R00/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Kunchenko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Neil MagnyRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R2
Chidi NjokuaniRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Zachary ScrogginRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Upcoming
Rinat FakhretdinovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
Kunchenko · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09