UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Las Vegas, USA
2 Oct 2021
Lightweight
VS
62%
Hernandez
38%
Breeden
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hernandez
Hernandez holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Breeden has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Breeden has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Breeden has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hernandez
Breeden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"+
Reach
70"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hernandez
Breeden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
32.0
47.4
Performance Avg
40.0
42
Quality of Victory
50
90
Momentum Score
22
Hernandez
Breeden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
3.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
4
4
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance5
6Clinch1
0Ground0
Hernandez
Breeden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Breeden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Hernandez
Breeden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
22
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Hernandez
Breeden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Breeden
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
HernandezBreeden
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedBreeden
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (75% of attacks) — Breeden absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Breeden targets the head (67% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Breeden
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Breeden · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
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W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Chase HooperRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
Breeden · Last 4
W · KO · R3
Anshul JubliRating 7.4KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · Dec · R3
Natan LevyRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · KO · R1
Alexander HernandezRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10