METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Las Vegas, USA
2 Oct 2021
Lightweight
VS
62%
Hernandez
38%
Breeden
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:20
★ Official Result
Alexander HernandezwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:20
def. Mike Breeden · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hernandez
→
Actual result
Hernandez wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Hernandez holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Breeden has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Breeden has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HernandezBreeden
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hernandez
Breeden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"+
Reach
70"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hernandez
Breeden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
32.0
47.4
Performance Avg
40.0
42
Quality of Victory
50
90
Momentum Score
22
Hernandez
Breeden
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
7.8
5.1
Style: Volume
0.5
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
4
4
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance5
6Clinch1
0Ground0
Hernandez
Breeden
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hernandez
Breeden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Hernandez
Breeden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
22
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Hernandez
Breeden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Breeden
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
HernandezBreeden
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedBreeden
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (75% of attacks) — Breeden absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Breeden targets the head (67% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Breeden
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · Last 5
Upcoming
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Diego FerreiraKO/TKO
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Chase HooperKO/TKO
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Breeden · Last 4
W · KO · R3
Anshul JubliKO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · Dec · R3
Natan LevyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · KO · R1
Alexander HernandezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10