UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
Las Vegas, USA
20 Mar 2021
Lightweight
VS
36%
Santos
64%
Dawson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:59
LS
Leonardo Santos
18 – 7
6'0"75" reachOrthodox46 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 36
Grant
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
24 – 3
Well-Rounded32 yrsSwitch72" reach5'10"
CFR 64

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dawson

Dawson holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Santos has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Dawson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Santos's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dawson has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Santos
Dawson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
72"
46
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Santos
Dawson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.1
64.1
57.5
Performance Avg
57.5
49
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
100
Santos
Dawson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
53%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
7
0
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance7
1Clinch0
0Ground4
Santos
Dawson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
4.2
2
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Santos
Dawson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
15/27 fights
Santos
Dawson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Santos
Dawson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
58%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Santos
Dawson
Striking4.3 / 3.4Volume4.8 / 5.0Grappling3.3 / 4.3Wrestling2.3 / 3.0Submission2.9 / 4.2Pressure6.1 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.2
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Santos
Strike Zones
Dawson
Santos
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Dawson
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (75% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Dawson targets the head (64% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Santos
RND
Dawson
0/0R00/0

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L3.2L5.9L2013-062015-122020-072022-08
WinLossTrend

Dawson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.7W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.6W5.9W5.7W4.5W2.2L5.2W6.0W5.5W3.6L6.1W2019-032021-032023-102025-122026-05
WinLossTrend

Santos · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
L · KO · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman BogatovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06

Dawson · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Leonardo Santos · Grant Dawson
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