METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
Las Vegas, USA
20 Mar 2021
Lightweight
VS
36%
Santos
64%
Dawson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:59
★ Official Result
Grant DawsonwinsKO/TKOR3 · 4:59
def. Leonardo Santos · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dawson
→
Actual result
Dawson wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Dawson holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Santos has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dawson has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SantosDawson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Santos
Dawson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
72"
46
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Santos
Dawson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.1
64.1
57.5
Performance Avg
57.5
49
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
100
Santos
Dawson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
6.7
4.8
Style: Volume
5.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
7
0
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance7
1Clinch0
0Ground4
Santos
Dawson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
4.2
2
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Santos
Dawson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
16/27 fights
Santos
Dawson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Santos
Dawson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
58%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Dawson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.2
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
SantosDawson
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedDawson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (75% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Dawson targets the head (64% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Dawson
0/0R00/0
Santos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonDecision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
L · KO · R3
Grant DawsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman BogatovDecision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R1
Stevie RayKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
Dawson · Last 5
Upcoming
Nurullo AlievUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiSubmission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresKO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraDecision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10