UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
14 Dec 2019
Bantamweight
VS
76%
Yan
24%
Faber
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:43
Petr
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
20 – 5
5'7"67" reachSwitch33 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 65
UF
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
35 – 11
Well-Rounded47 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Yan

Yan is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Yan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Faber has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Yan
Faber
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
67"
33+
Age
47
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Yan
Faber
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.1
20.8
56.4
Performance Avg
49.4
44
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
100
Yan
Faber
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.9
57%
Strike Accuracy
46%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance0
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Yan
Faber
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Yan
Faber
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
46
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
18/46 fights
Yan
Faber
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Yan
Faber
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
64%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
6
8
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Yan
Faber
Striking4.8 / 2.1Volume6.8 / 4.1Grappling1.6 / 5.2Wrestling1.1 / 3.7Submission0.0 / 5.5Pressure4.6 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.5
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Yan
Strike Zones
Faber
Yan
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Faber
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Yan targets the head (67% of attacks) — Faber absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Yan
RND
Faber
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0

Yan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W4.5W5.4W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.0W6.1L6.0W6.5L7.0L6.8L5.8W5.6W6.2W5.8W2018-062019-062021-102024-032025-12
WinLossTrend

Faber · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W5.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.4W4.5W5.2W1.5L5.7W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.7W5.5L2011-032013-042014-122016-122019-12
WinLossTrend

Yan · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Marcus McGheeRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · Dec · R5
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03

Faber · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Petr YanRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Ricky SimonRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · Dec · R5
Dominick CruzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06

News & Media

Petr Yan · Urijah Faber
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