UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Las Vegas, USA
27 Apr 2024
Flyweight
VS
39%
Nicolau
61%
Perez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:16
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Perez
Perez holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Nicolau has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Perez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Perez throws more volume but Nicolau connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nicolau's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Perez has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nicolau
Perez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
66"+
Reach
65"
33+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nicolau
Perez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.0
60.7
44.7
Performance Avg
52.7
32
Quality of Victory
50
49
Momentum Score
100
Nicolau
Perez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.3
52%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
7
2
Body
4
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
12Distance15
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nicolau
Perez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nicolau
Perez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/25 fights
Chin rating based on
15/36 fights
Nicolau
Perez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Nicolau
Perez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
75%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nicolau
Perez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
NicolauPerez
Strike Zones
Nicolau
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedPerez
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nicolau targets the head (58% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Perez targets the head (47% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nicolau
RND
Perez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nicolau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Perez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Nicolau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
Perez · Last 5
Upcoming
SumudaerjiUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Charles JohnsonRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · Sub · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Matheus NicolauRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04