UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
London, United Kingdom
23 Jul 2022
Lightweight
VS
57%
Herbert
43%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jai
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14 – 6
6'1"77" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Kyle
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17 – 7
Well-Rounded35 yrsSwitch71" reach5'11"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herbert

This is a genuine toss-up — Herbert at 57% vs Nelson at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Herbert throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Herbert's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Herbert
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
77"+
Reach
71"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Herbert
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.6
36.8
43.3
Performance Avg
41.6
43
Quality of Victory
39
74
Momentum Score
36
Herbert
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
0
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Herbert
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Herbert
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
12/24 fights
Herbert
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
36
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Herbert
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herbert
Nelson
Striking5.9 / 4.9Volume4.9 / 5.7Grappling1.2 / 1.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.8 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Herbert
Strike Zones
Nelson
Herbert
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herbert targets the head (80% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (40% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herbert
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Herbert · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.0L3.5L5.0W5.1L4.6W6.7L4.5W7.3L5.0W2020-072022-032024-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0103.8L4.0L5.0W5.2L6.2L4.5W5.8W5.2W3.4L4.7W3.0L2018-122020-092023-092025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Herbert · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloRating 5
KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Chris PadillaRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Upcoming
Ludovit Klein
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Nelson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

News & Media

Jai Herbert · Kyle Nelson
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