UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Toronto, Canada
20 Jan 2024
Welterweight
VS
25%
Lainesse
75%
Patterson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:03
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Patterson
Patterson is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Patterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Patterson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lainesse's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lainesse
Patterson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
+78"
33
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lainesse
Patterson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.5
69.2
25.0
Performance Avg
60.9
25
Quality of Victory
57
28
Momentum Score
85
Lainesse
Patterson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
2.4
35%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lainesse
Patterson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lainesse
Patterson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Lainesse
Patterson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
85
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Lainesse
Patterson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lainesse
Patterson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
LainessePatterson
Strike Zones
Lainesse
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedPatterson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lainesse targets the head (100% of attacks) — Patterson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Patterson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lainesse absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lainesse
RND
Patterson
0/0R00/0
Lainesse · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Patterson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Lainesse · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Sam PattersonRating 3.2Submission
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
L · Sub · R1
Mike MalottRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Darian WeeksRating 4.5Decision
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Gabe GreenRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
Patterson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Trey WatersRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Danny BarlowRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Kiefer CrosbieRating 5Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Yohan LainesseRating 5Submission
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01