METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Toronto, Canada
20 Jan 2024
Welterweight
VS
21%
Lainesse
79%
Patterson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:03
★ Official Result
Sam PattersonwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:03
def. Yohan Lainesse · UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Patterson
→
Actual result
Patterson wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Patterson is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Patterson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Risk flags
Lainesse's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LainessePatterson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lainesse
Patterson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
+78"
34
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lainesse
Patterson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.6
72.6
25.0
Performance Avg
62.5
25
Quality of Victory
57
28
Momentum Score
98
Lainesse
Patterson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
7.4
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
9.1
8.5
Style: Volume
1.4
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lainesse
Patterson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lainesse
Patterson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
7/17 fights
Lainesse
Patterson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
98
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Lainesse
Patterson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lainesse
Patterson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.1
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.4
LainessePatterson
Strike Zones
Lainesse
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedPatterson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lainesse targets the head (100% of attacks) — Patterson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Patterson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lainesse absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lainesse
RND
Patterson
0/0R00/0
Lainesse · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Sam PattersonSubmission
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
L · Sub · R1
Mike MalottSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Darian WeeksDecision
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Gabe GreenKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
Patterson · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael PageDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Trey WatersKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Danny BarlowKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Kiefer CrosbieSubmission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07