UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Las Vegas, USA
5 Apr 2025
Featherweight
VS
46%
Sabatini
54%
Brito
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brito
This is a genuine toss-up — Sabatini at 46% vs Brito at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brito has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Brito has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sabatini's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sabatini
Brito
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
+72"
35
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sabatini
Brito
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
66.1
53.2
Performance Avg
54.3
34
Quality of Victory
46
81
Momentum Score
98
Sabatini
Brito
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Sabatini
Brito
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
3.1
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sabatini
Brito
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
10/23 fights
Sabatini
Brito
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
98
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · R2
Sabatini
Brito
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sabatini
Brito
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.1
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
SabatiniBrito
Strike Zones
Sabatini
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedBrito
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sabatini targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brito absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sabatini
RND
Brito
0/0R00/0
Sabatini · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Brito · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Sabatini · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 5.6Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joanderson BritoRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Diego LopesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Brito · Last 5
Upcoming
Jordan LeavittUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Isaac ThomsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · R2
Jack ShoreRating 5UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05