UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
San Diego, USA
15 Jul 2015
Middleweight
VS
36%
Casey
64%
Alcantara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
KC
Kevin Casey
"King"
9 – 5
5'11"77" reachSouthpaw44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 9
IA
Ildemar Alcantara
"Marajo"
21 – 11
Well-Rounded43 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'2"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alcantara

Alcantara holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Casey has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Casey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Casey's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Casey
Alcantara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
77"
Reach
+78"
44
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Casey
Alcantara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.0
16.0
25.0
Performance Avg
41.5
25
Quality of Victory
31
33
Momentum Score
53
Casey
Alcantara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
33%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
2
Body
4
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance8
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Casey
Alcantara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Casey
Alcantara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
7/32 fights
Casey
Alcantara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
53
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Casey
Alcantara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Casey
Alcantara
Striking0.5 / 1.1Volume8.5 / 7.1Grappling2.4 / 3.8Wrestling1.7 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure0.8 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
Casey
Strike Zones
Alcantara
Casey
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY6LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD4BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Alcantara
Attacking
5HEAD4BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY6LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Casey targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Alcantara targets the head (56% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Casey
RND
Alcantara
0/0R00/0

Casey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0102.8L4.5W4.0L2.8L2013-042015-072016-012016-08
WinLossTrend

Alcantara · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2013-012013-102014-072015-07
WinLossTrend

Casey · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
Upcoming
Elvis Mutapcic
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R3
Rafael NatalRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
Upcoming
Antonio Carlos Junior
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07

Alcantara · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · Dec · R3
Richardson MoreiraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · 2014-07
W · Dec · R3
Albert TumenovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Igor AraujoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10

News & Media

Kevin Casey · Ildemar Alcantara
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