METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
San Diego, USA
15 Jul 2015
Middleweight
VS
36%
Casey
64%
Alcantara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kevin CaseywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Ildemar Alcantara · UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alcantara
→
Actual result
Casey wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Alcantara holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Casey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Casey's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CaseyAlcantara
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Casey
Alcantara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
77"
Reach
+78"
45
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Casey
Alcantara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.0
16.0
25.0
Performance Avg
41.5
25
Quality of Victory
31
33
Momentum Score
53
Casey
Alcantara
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
1.1
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
3.5
8.5
Style: Volume
7.1
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
2
Body
4
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance8
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Casey
Alcantara
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Casey
Alcantara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
7/32 fights
Casey
Alcantara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
53
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Casey
Alcantara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Casey
Alcantara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
CaseyAlcantara
Strike Zones
Casey
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedAlcantara
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Casey targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Alcantara targets the head (56% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Casey
RND
Alcantara
0/0R00/0
Casey · Last 5
L · KO · R2
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Alcantara · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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