METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
San Diego, USA
15 Jul 2015
Middleweight
VS
36%
Casey
64%
Alcantara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kevin CaseywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Ildemar Alcantara · UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alcantara
→
Actual result
Casey wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Alcantara holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Casey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Casey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Casey's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CaseyAlcantara
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Casey
Alcantara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
77"
Reach
+78"
45
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Casey
Alcantara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.0
16.0
25.0
Performance Avg
41.5
25
Quality of Victory
31
33
Momentum Score
53
Casey
Alcantara
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
0.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
33%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
2
Body
4
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance8
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Casey
Alcantara
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Casey
Alcantara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
7/32 fights
Casey
Alcantara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
53
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Casey
Alcantara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Casey
Alcantara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
CaseyAlcantara
Strike Zones
Casey
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedAlcantara
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Casey targets the legs (46% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Alcantara targets the head (56% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Casey
RND
Alcantara
0/0R00/0
Casey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Alcantara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Casey · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 2.8KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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