UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian
Las Vegas, USA
19 Sept 2007
Lightweight
VS
70%
Diaz
30%
Assuncao
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Diaz
Diaz is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Diaz throws more volume but Assuncao connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz
Assuncao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
72"
41+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Assuncao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
15.4
53.4
Performance Avg
38.3
50
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
50
Diaz
Assuncao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
65%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
0
Body
3
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance2
9Clinch3
0Ground2
Diaz
Assuncao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
Assuncao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
5/22 fights
Diaz
Assuncao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
50
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Diaz
Assuncao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
10
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Assuncao
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
DiazAssuncao
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedAssuncao
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (60% of attacks) — Assuncao absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Assuncao targets the body (43% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Assuncao
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Assuncao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Assuncao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ross PearsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
W · Dec · R3
Eddie YaginRating 4.5Decision
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
L · Sub · R1
Nate DiazRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian · 2007-09
W · Sub · R2
David LeeRating 5.2Submission
UFC 70: Nations Collide · 2007-04
L · Sub · R1
Kurt PellegrinoRating 1.5Submission
UFC 64: Unstoppable · 2006-10