UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
2 Jan 2016
Bantamweight
VS
66%
McDonald
34%
Kanehara
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:09
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McDonald
McDonald holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Kanehara has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McDonald has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: McDonald throws more volume but Kanehara connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
McDonald's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McDonald
Kanehara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
67"
35+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
McDonald
Kanehara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.0
11.5
53.6
Performance Avg
28.3
45
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
40
McDonald
Kanehara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
7
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground7
McDonald
Kanehara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McDonald
Kanehara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
3/38 fights
McDonald
Kanehara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
McDonald
Kanehara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McDonald
Kanehara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
McDonaldKanehara
Strike Zones
McDonald
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedKanehara
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McDonald targets the head (67% of attacks) — Kanehara absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Kanehara targets the body (78% of attacks) — McDonald absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McDonald
RND
Kanehara
0/0R00/0
McDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Kanehara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
McDonald · Last 5
L · KO · R1
John LinekerRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Masanori KaneharaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Sub · R2
Urijah FaberRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Sub · R2
Brad PickettRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · Sub · R4
Renan BaraoRating 3.4Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
Kanehara · Last 3
L · Sub · R2
Michael McDonaldRating 2.8Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Dec · R3
Rani YahyaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09