METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 76: Knockout
Anaheim, USA
22 Sept 2007
Lightweight
VS
95%
Stephens
5%
Saraiva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jeremy StephenswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Diego Saraiva · UFC 76: Knockout
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Stephens
→
Actual result
Stephens wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Stephens is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Stephens has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Stephens has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StephensSaraiva
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Stephens
Saraiva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
71"
Reach
40+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Saraiva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
2.6
41.1
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
76
Momentum Score
0
Stephens
Saraiva
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
0.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
30%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
1
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
22Ground0
Stephens
Saraiva
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Saraiva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
3/42 fights
Stephens
Saraiva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
0
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Stephens
Saraiva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stephens
Saraiva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
StephensSaraiva
Strike Zones
Stephens
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedSaraiva
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (88% of attacks) — Saraiva absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Saraiva targets the head (50% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stephens
RND
Saraiva
0/0R00/0
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Saraiva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
Saraiva · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6Decision
UFC 76: Knockout · 2007-09
L · Dec · R3
Jorge GurgelRating 5.5Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07
L · Dec · R3
Dustin HazelettRating 5.5Decision
UFC 67: All or Nothing · 2007-02