UFC 76: Knockout
Anaheim, USA
22 Sept 2007
Lightweight
VS
95%
Stephens
5%
Saraiva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
5'9"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
DS
Diego Saraiva
"The Octopus"
22 – 20
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox5'6"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stephens

Stephens is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Stephens has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.

Stephens has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens
Saraiva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
71"
Reach
40+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Saraiva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
2.6
41.1
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
76
Momentum Score
0
Stephens
Saraiva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
30%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
1
3
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
22Ground0
Stephens
Saraiva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Saraiva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
3/42 fights
Stephens
Saraiva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
0
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Stephens
Saraiva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stephens
Saraiva
Striking5.5 / 0.0Volume4.6 / 0.0Grappling1.1 / 0.0Wrestling0.8 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Stephens
Strike Zones
Saraiva
Stephens
Attacking
22HEAD3BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Saraiva
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD3BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (88% of attacks) — Saraiva absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Saraiva targets the head (50% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stephens
RND
Saraiva
0/0R00/0

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Saraiva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.5L6.0L2007-022007-072007-09
WinLossTrend

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Saraiva · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6
Decision
UFC 76: Knockout · 2007-09
L · Dec · R3
Jorge GurgelRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07
L · Dec · R3
Dustin HazelettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 67: All or Nothing · 2007-02

News & Media

Jeremy Stephens · Diego Saraiva
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