UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Flyweight
VS
47%
Costa
53%
Coria
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:47
Alessandro
Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
15 – 5
5'4"67" reachOrthodox30 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 63
Alden
Alden Coria
"Cobra"
12 – 3
Volume Striker2-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'8"
CFR 70

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Coria

This is a genuine toss-up — Costa at 47% vs Coria at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Coria throws more volume but Costa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Costa's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Costa
Coria
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'8"
67"
Reach
67"
30
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Costa
Coria
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.9
69.6
53.0
Performance Avg
62.5
55
Quality of Victory
38
85
Momentum Score
100
Costa
Coria
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
59%
Strike Accuracy
47%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
9
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Costa
Coria
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Costa
Coria
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/20 fights
Chin rating based on
2/15 fights
Costa
Coria
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Costa
Coria
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Costa
Coria
Striking10.0 / 7.0Volume1.0 / 6.0Grappling0.0 / 1.2Wrestling0.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.5 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Costa
Strike Zones
Coria
Costa
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Coria
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Coria absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Coria targets the head (90% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Costa
RND
Coria
0/0R00/0

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.3L5.7W6.1L5.2W5.7L5.2W2022-122023-062023-112024-052025-092026-04
WinLossTrend

Coria · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0106.9W4.5W2025-092026-02
WinLossTrend

Costa · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Stewart NicollRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Alden CoriaRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Kevin BorjasRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R2
Jimmy FlickRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

Coria · Last 2

W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R3
Alessandro CostaRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

News & Media

Alessandro Costa · Alden Coria
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