METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Flyweight
VS
50%
Costa
50%
Coria
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:47
★ Official Result
Alden CoriawinsKO/TKOR3 · 0:47
def. Alessandro Costa · Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Coria wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Costa at 50% vs Coria at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Risk flags
Costa's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CostaCoria
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Costa
Coria
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'8"
67"
Reach
67"
30
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Costa
Coria
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.6
66.7
57.9
Performance Avg
60.0
55
Quality of Victory
33
85
Momentum Score
100
Costa
Coria
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
8.9
Style: Pressure
5.3
1.3
Style: Volume
7.3
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
9
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Costa
Coria
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Costa
Coria
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Costa
Coria
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Costa
Coria
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Coria
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
CostaCoria
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedCoria
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Coria absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Coria targets the head (90% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Coria
0/0R00/0
Costa · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
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W · KO · R2
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Coria · Last 4
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
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Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09