UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
Seattle, USA
26 Mar 2011
Welterweight
VS
51%
Hendricks
49%
Waldburger
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:35
JH
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
18 – 8
5'9"69" reachSouthpaw42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
TW
TJ Waldburger
16 – 9
Submission Hunter2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'11"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hendricks

This is a genuine toss-up — Hendricks at 51% vs Waldburger at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Waldburger has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hendricks's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Waldburger has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Hendricks
Waldburger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+75"
42
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Hendricks
Waldburger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
16.9
48.2
Performance Avg
47.4
39
Quality of Victory
46
80
Momentum Score
50
Hendricks
Waldburger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.9
49%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
4
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
2Clinch1
3Ground0
Hendricks
Waldburger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.5
/ 10
6.6
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
7.5
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hendricks
Waldburger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/25 fights
Hendricks
Waldburger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
50
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Hendricks
Waldburger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
75%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hendricks
Waldburger
Striking5.1 / 1.0Volume6.2 / 3.0Grappling1.5 / 6.6Wrestling1.0 / 4.6Submission0.0 / 7.5Pressure4.5 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.5
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Hendricks
Strike Zones
Waldburger
Hendricks
Attacking
3HEAD4BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD2BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Waldburger
Attacking
0HEAD2BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD4BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hendricks targets the body (57% of attacks) — Waldburger absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Waldburger targets the body (67% of attacks) — Hendricks absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hendricks
RND
Waldburger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hendricks · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.8W5.8L4.9W2.1L5.8L6.1L4.5W2.8L3.8L2009-082011-082014-032017-022017-11
WinLossTrend

Waldburger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W1.5L4.0L2010-092011-092012-062013-102014-02
WinLossTrend

Hendricks · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Paulo CostaRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
L · KO · R2
Tim BoetschRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

Waldburger · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike PyleRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
L · KO · R1
Adlan AmagovRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · Sub · R2
Nick CatoneRating 5.2
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Jake HechtRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03

News & Media

Johny Hendricks · TJ Waldburger
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