UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares
Austin, USA
15 Sept 2010
Lightweight
VS
21%
Escudero
79%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:25
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
Oliveira is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Escudero's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Escudero
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+74"
40
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Escudero
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.8
63.3
48.3
Performance Avg
58.6
53
Quality of Victory
51
40
Momentum Score
100
Escudero
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
53%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
1
Body
3
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
3Distance8
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Escudero
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Escudero
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
5
2
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/40 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Escudero
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Escudero
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
84%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
17
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Escudero
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
EscuderoOliveira
Strike Zones
Escudero
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Escudero targets the head (50% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (33% of attacks) — Escudero absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Escudero
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Escudero · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Escudero · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin LeeRating 5.5Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Leandro SilvaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · 2015-11
W · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2Submission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo de LimaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Leonardo SantosRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04