UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Featherweight
VS
35%
Burgos
65%
Quarantillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Quarantillo
Quarantillo holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Burgos has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Burgos throws more volume but Quarantillo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Burgos's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Quarantillo has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Burgos
Quarantillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
70"
35+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burgos
Quarantillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.9
58.1
50.0
Performance Avg
47.3
35
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
100
Burgos
Quarantillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
2.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
57%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
41
Head
37
10
Body
9
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
38Distance39
18Clinch8
1Ground0
Burgos
Quarantillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Burgos
Quarantillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Burgos
Quarantillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Burgos
Quarantillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burgos
Quarantillo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
BurgosQuarantillo
Strike Zones
Burgos
Attacking
57 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedQuarantillo
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
57 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burgos targets the head (72% of attacks) — Quarantillo absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Quarantillo targets the head (79% of attacks) — Burgos absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burgos
RND
Quarantillo
0/0R00/0
Burgos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Quarantillo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Burgos · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 5.7Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · KO · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Josh EmmettRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · KO · R3
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
Quarantillo · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Cub SwansonRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R2
Youssef ZalalRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12