UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Middleweight
VS
63%
Malkoun
37%
Hawes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Malkoun
Malkoun holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Hawes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hawes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Hawes throws more volume but Malkoun connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hawes has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Malkoun
Hawes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
73"
Reach
+77"
30+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Malkoun
Hawes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
32.2
44.7
Performance Avg
44.8
30
Quality of Victory
41
98
Momentum Score
13
Malkoun
Hawes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
3.8
61%
Strike Accuracy
59%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
7
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Malkoun
Hawes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Malkoun
Hawes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
12
Moderate
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/13 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Malkoun
Hawes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
13
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Malkoun
Hawes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
17%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Malkoun
Hawes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
MalkounHawes
Strike Zones
Malkoun
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedHawes
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hawes targets the head (100% of attacks) — Malkoun absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Malkoun
RND
Hawes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Malkoun · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Hawes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Malkoun · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
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