UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2023
Flyweight
VS
57%
Taira
43%
Aguilar
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:20
Tatsuro
Tatsuro Taira
"The Best"
18 – 2
5'7"70" reachOrthodox26 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 70
Jesus
Jesus Aguilar
12 – 4
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'4"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Taira

This is a genuine toss-up — Taira at 57% vs Aguilar at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Taira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Taira
Aguilar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
70"+
Reach
62"
26+
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Taira
Aguilar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.7
52.3
61.0
Performance Avg
47.5
48
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
60
Taira
Aguilar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
61%
Strike Accuracy
35%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance2
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Taira
Aguilar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Taira
Aguilar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
8/16 fights
Taira
Aguilar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
60
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Taira
Aguilar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Taira
Aguilar
Striking5.3 / 3.6Volume3.6 / 5.1Grappling3.6 / 3.2Wrestling2.5 / 2.2Submission3.8 / 2.5Pressure7.7 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Taira
Strike Zones
Aguilar
Taira
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Aguilar
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Taira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Aguilar targets the body (50% of attacks) — Taira absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Taira
RND
Aguilar
0/0R00/0

Taira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0104.5W5.3W5.9W5.5W5.2W6.4W6.3L7.0W6.1W5.6L2022-052023-072024-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.2L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1L4.5W6.1L2023-022024-022025-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Taira · Last 5

L · KO · R5
Joshua VanRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Brandon MorenoRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R2
HyunSung ParkRating 7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06

Aguilar · Last 5

Upcoming
Rei Tsuruya
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollRating 5
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Tatsuro Taira · Jesus Aguilar
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