UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Middleweight
VS
47%
Almeida
53%
Alhassan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:16
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alhassan
This is a genuine toss-up — Almeida at 47% vs Alhassan at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alhassan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Alhassan throws more volume but Almeida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alhassan has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Almeida
Alhassan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
73"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Alhassan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.1
65.5
52.0
Performance Avg
54.0
47
Quality of Victory
59
58
Momentum Score
100
Almeida
Alhassan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.9
59%
Strike Accuracy
53%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
13
9
Body
4
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance9
4Clinch4
0Ground4
Almeida
Alhassan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Almeida
Alhassan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
36
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/9 fights
Chin rating based on
14/19 fights
Almeida
Alhassan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Almeida
Alhassan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Alhassan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
AlmeidaAlhassan
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedAlhassan
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the body (45% of attacks) — Alhassan absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Alhassan targets the head (76% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Alhassan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.9WinLossTrend
Alhassan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Almeida · Last 5
Upcoming
Damian PinasUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Cezary OleksiejczukRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R1
Abdul Razak AlhassanRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Ihor PotieriaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 6.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Alhassan · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cesar AlmeidaRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
Upcoming
Cody BrundageUFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Sub · R2
Joe PyferRating 4.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · KO · R2
Claudio RibeiroRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 6.7Decision
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