METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Middleweight
VS
46%
Almeida
54%
Alhassan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:16
★ Official Result
Cesar AlmeidawinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:16
def. Abdul Razak Alhassan · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alhassan
→
Actual result
Almeida wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Almeida at 46% vs Alhassan at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alhassan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Alhassan has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlmeidaAlhassan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Almeida
Alhassan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
73"
38+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Alhassan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.3
58.9
48.0
Performance Avg
54.0
47
Quality of Victory
59
38
Momentum Score
100
Almeida
Alhassan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.7
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
6.2
Style: Pressure
8.4
3.7
Style: Volume
0.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
13
9
Body
4
8
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance9
4Clinch4
0Ground4
Almeida
Alhassan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Alhassan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
36
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/9 fights
Chin rating based on
14/19 fights
Almeida
Alhassan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
38
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Almeida
Alhassan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Alhassan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
AlmeidaAlhassan
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedAlhassan
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the body (45% of attacks) — Alhassan absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Alhassan targets the head (76% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Alhassan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Almeida · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Damian PinasKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Cezary OleksiejczukDecision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R1
Abdul Razak AlhassanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Ihor PotieriaDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovDecision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Alhassan · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cesar AlmeidaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
Upcoming
Cody BrundageUFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Sub · R2
Joe PyferSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · KO · R2
Claudio RibeiroKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Joaquin BuckleyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · 2022-02