UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
Boston, USA
17 Aug 2013
Featherweight
VS
27%
Brandao
73%
Pineda
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pineda
Pineda is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Brandao throws more volume but Pineda connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Brandao's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brandao
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
64"
Reach
+69"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brandao
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.9
52.9
53.4
Performance Avg
47.4
49
Quality of Victory
53
79
Momentum Score
85
Brandao
Pineda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
55%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
13
1
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance11
0Clinch4
3Ground0
Brandao
Pineda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brandao
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
44
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/33 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Brandao
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
85
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
W · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Brandao
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brandao
Pineda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
BrandaoPineda
Strike Zones
Brandao
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedPineda
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brandao targets the head (90% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Pineda targets the head (87% of attacks) — Brandao absorbs 87% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brandao
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0
Brandao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Pineda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Brandao · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Katsunori KikunoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
W · R1
Jimy HettesRating 4UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
Pineda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
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W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2Submission
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Upcoming
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