UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Apr 2014
Featherweight
VS
73%
Guida
27%
Kawajiri
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
TK
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
36 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Kawajiri connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Guida
Kawajiri
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
44+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Kawajiri
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
16.1
40.7
Performance Avg
39.9
35
Quality of Victory
33
78
Momentum Score
55
Guida
Kawajiri
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.3
36%
Strike Accuracy
36%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
4
6
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance4
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Guida
Kawajiri
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Kawajiri
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
6/47 fights
Guida
Kawajiri
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
55
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Guida
Kawajiri
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Kawajiri
Striking2.1 / 1.0Volume5.9 / 6.3Grappling3.7 / 4.3Wrestling2.6 / 3.0Submission2.8 / 3.3Pressure4.2 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Guida
Strike Zones
Kawajiri
Guida
Attacking
10HEAD6BODY2LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Kawajiri
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD6BODY2LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (56% of attacks) — Kawajiri absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Kawajiri targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Kawajiri
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Kawajiri · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W6.0L4.5W4.5W5.5L6.0L2014-012014-042015-062015-122016-022016-08
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Kawajiri · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Dec · R3
Jason KnightRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04

News & Media

Clay Guida · Tatsuya Kawajiri
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