METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Apr 2014
Featherweight
VS
73%
Guida
27%
Kawajiri
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Clay GuidawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tatsuya Kawajiri · UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Guida wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Guida is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Kawajiri connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GuidaKawajiri
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guida
Kawajiri
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
44+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Kawajiri
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
16.1
40.7
Performance Avg
39.9
35
Quality of Victory
33
78
Momentum Score
55
Guida
Kawajiri
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
0.3
36%
Strike Accuracy
36%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
4
6
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance4
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Guida
Kawajiri
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Kawajiri
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
6/47 fights
Guida
Kawajiri
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
55
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Guida
Kawajiri
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Kawajiri
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
GuidaKawajiri
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedKawajiri
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (56% of attacks) — Kawajiri absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Kawajiri targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Kawajiri
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Kawajiri · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Kawajiri · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Dec · R3
Jason KnightRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04