UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Lightweight
VS
53%
Chandler
47%
Ferguson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:17
Michael
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
23 – 10
5'8"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 50
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
Well-Rounded8-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chandler

This is a genuine toss-up — Chandler at 53% vs Ferguson at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Ferguson throws more volume but Chandler connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Chandler's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Chandler
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+76"
40+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chandler
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.3
45.2
45.9
Performance Avg
54.2
58
Quality of Victory
49
46
Momentum Score
52
Chandler
Ferguson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.9
57%
Strike Accuracy
47%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Chandler
Ferguson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chandler
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/33 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Chandler
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Chandler
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
0
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chandler
Ferguson
Striking10.0 / 3.3Volume0.6 / 3.4Grappling0.0 / 3.8Wrestling0.0 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure7.9 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Chandler
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Chandler
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Ferguson
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chandler targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chandler
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Chandler · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.9W3.5L7.1L5.8W5.3L6.9L4.5L2021-012021-112022-112025-04
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Chandler · Last 5

Upcoming
Mauricio Ruffy
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

News & Media

Michael Chandler · Tony Ferguson
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