METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Phoenix, USA
7 May 2022
Lightweight
VS
51%
Chandler
49%
Ferguson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:17
★ Official Result
Michael ChandlerwinsKO/TKOR2 · 0:17
def. Tony Ferguson · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Chandler
→
Actual result
Chandler wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Chandler at 51% vs Ferguson at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Chandler's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ChandlerFerguson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Chandler
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+76"
40+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chandler
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.8
45.2
44.5
Performance Avg
54.2
58
Quality of Victory
49
46
Momentum Score
52
Chandler
Ferguson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
7.8
Style: Pressure
6.1
0.5
Style: Volume
3.4
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Chandler
Ferguson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chandler
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
12
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/33 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Chandler
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
52
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Chandler
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
0
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chandler
Ferguson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
ChandlerFerguson
Strike Zones
Chandler
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedFerguson
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chandler targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chandler
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Chandler · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettKO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraDecision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05