METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
8 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
54%
Gaethje
46%
Fiziev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Justin GaethjewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rafael Fiziev · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Gaethje wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 54% vs Fiziev at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Risk flags
Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fiziev has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GaethjeFiziev
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gaethje
Fiziev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
+71"
37
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Gaethje
Fiziev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
67.6
56.9
65.5
Performance Avg
49.0
63
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
100
Gaethje
Fiziev
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.7
/ 10
6.2
/ 10
6.5
Style: Pressure
5.3
4.3
Style: Volume
5.2
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
33
Head
8
4
Body
21
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
21Distance24
18Clinch6
0Ground0
Gaethje
Fiziev
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gaethje
Fiziev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
30
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/32 fights
Chin rating based on
13/18 fights
Gaethje
Fiziev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Gaethje
Fiziev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaethje
Fiziev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
GaethjeFiziev
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedFiziev
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (85% of attacks) — Fiziev absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Fiziev targets the body (70% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaethje
RND
Fiziev
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gaethje · Last 5
W · KO · R4
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Fiziev · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Manuel TorresKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Mauricio RuffyKO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09