UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Flyweight
VS
60%
Smolka
40%
Nguyen
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smolka
Smolka holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Nguyen has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nguyen has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smolka
Nguyen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
65"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Smolka
Nguyen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
17.6
46.5
Performance Avg
51.8
46
Quality of Victory
48
60
Momentum Score
33
Smolka
Nguyen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.6
51%
Strike Accuracy
37%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
0
3
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
37Ground0
Smolka
Nguyen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
Nguyen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Smolka
Nguyen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Smolka
Nguyen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Nguyen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
SmolkaNguyen
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedNguyen
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (92% of attacks) — Nguyen absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Nguyen targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Nguyen
0/0R00/0
Smolka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Nguyen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Nguyen · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Sub · R3
Jussier FormigaRating 4Submission
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · Sub · R1
Tim ElliottRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Geane HerreraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · KO · R2
Louis SmolkaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07