METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Flyweight
VS
60%
Smolka
40%
Nguyen
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:41
★ Official Result
Louis SmolkawinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:41
def. Ben Nguyen · UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smolka
→
Actual result
Smolka wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Smolka holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Nguyen has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nguyen has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmolkaNguyen
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smolka
Nguyen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
65"
35+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Smolka
Nguyen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
17.6
46.5
Performance Avg
51.8
46
Quality of Victory
48
60
Momentum Score
33
Smolka
Nguyen
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.9
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
7.0
2.9
Style: Volume
3.1
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
0
3
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
37Ground0
Smolka
Nguyen
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smolka
Nguyen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Smolka
Nguyen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Smolka
Nguyen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Nguyen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
SmolkaNguyen
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedNguyen
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the head (92% of attacks) — Nguyen absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Nguyen targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Nguyen
0/0R00/0
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Nguyen · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Sub · R3
Jussier FormigaSubmission
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · Sub · R1
Tim ElliottSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Geane HerreraDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · KO · R2
Louis SmolkaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07