UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2022
Middleweight
VS
46%
Curtis
54%
Buckley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:49
Chris
Chris Curtis
"Action-Man"
32 – 13
5'10"75" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 50
Joaquin
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
21 – 8
Striker2-fight slide32 yrsSouthpaw76" reach5'10"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Buckley

This is a genuine toss-up — Curtis at 46% vs Buckley at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Curtis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Buckley has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Curtis
Buckley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
75"
Reach
+76"
38
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Curtis
Buckley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.5
58.0
46.3
Performance Avg
50.6
41
Quality of Victory
41
54
Momentum Score
100
Curtis
Buckley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
41%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
15
1
Body
4
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance21
1Clinch0
6Ground0
Curtis
Buckley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Curtis
Buckley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
28
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/45 fights
Chin rating based on
17/29 fights
Curtis
Buckley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Curtis
Buckley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
55%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Curtis
Buckley
Striking6.1 / 6.8Volume5.1 / 3.5Grappling1.2 / 0.7Wrestling0.8 / 0.5Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.1 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Curtis
Strike Zones
Buckley
Curtis
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY2LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD4BODY2LEGS21 absorbed
Buckley
Attacking
15HEAD4BODY2LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY2LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Curtis targets the head (82% of attacks) — Buckley absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Buckley targets the head (71% of attacks) — Curtis absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Curtis
RND
Buckley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Curtis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.0W6.6W5.8W6.4L6.4W5.8L4.5W6.8L5.0L5.1W7.1L2021-112022-072024-012025-072026-03
WinLossTrend

Buckley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.6L5.2W5.2W1.5L5.5W6.0W4.2W6.9L3.5L5.2W4.5W6.7W6.4W6.1W5.6W6.6L6.6L2020-082022-022023-102025-062026-05
WinLossTrend

Curtis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Brendan AllenRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

Buckley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · R3
Colby CovingtonRating 5.6
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nursulton RuziboevRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

News & Media

Chris Curtis · Joaquin Buckley
← Back to fights