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UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
Houston, USA
8 Oct 2011
Lightweight
VS
50%
Guillard
50%
Lauzon
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:47
MG
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32 – 18
5'9"71" reachOrthodox43 yrsStriker
CFR 18
JL
Joe Lauzon
28 – 16
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 18
★ Official Result
Joe LauzonwinsSubmissionR1 · 0:47
def. Melvin Guillard · UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guillard
→
Actual result
Lauzon wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Guillard at 50% vs Lauzon at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Guillard throws more volume but Lauzon connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Guillard's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lauzon has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
GuillardLauzon
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Guillard
Lauzon
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
71"
43
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guillard
Lauzon
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
17.7
49.7
Performance Avg
51.5
45
Quality of Victory
49
73
Momentum Score
59
Guillard
Lauzon
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
1.3
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Guillard
Lauzon
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guillard
Lauzon
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
6
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/50 fights
Chin rating based on
27/44 fights
Guillard
Lauzon
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
59
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Guillard
Lauzon
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
80%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
7
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guillard
Lauzon
Striking7.0 / 4.4Volume3.8 / 2.2Grappling0.8 / 4.0Wrestling0.6 / 2.8Submission0.0 / 4.7Pressure5.8 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.7
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Guillard
Strike Zones
Lauzon
Guillard
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Lauzon
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guillard targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lauzon absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Lauzon targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guillard absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guillard
RND
Lauzon
0/0R00/0

Guillard · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.2W1.5L5.0W5.2W1.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L1.9L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W5.6L2005-112008-072011-012012-122014-03
WinLossTrend

Lauzon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W5.0W2.8L5.2W5.8W5.5L5.0W2.8L5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5W5.9L5.6L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.0W5.5L5.0W5.9L4.5W5.5L2.0L2.8L5.5W2006-092010-082013-082016-082019-10
WinLossTrend

Guillard · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03
Upcoming
Ross Pearson
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
W · KO · R2
Mac DanzigRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Jamie VarnerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08

Lauzon · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
L · KO · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · KO · R1
Clay GuidaRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Marcin HeldRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01

News & Media

Melvin Guillard · Joe Lauzon
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