METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Ottawa, Canada
4 May 2019
Featherweight
VS
61%
Nelson
39%
Sayles
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:16
★ Official Result
Matt SayleswinsSubmissionR3 · 3:16
def. Kyle Nelson · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Sayles wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Sayles has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NelsonSayles
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nelson
Sayles
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
68"
35
Age
+32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Sayles
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
23.2
41.6
Performance Avg
37.0
39
Quality of Victory
45
36
Momentum Score
22
Nelson
Sayles
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.9
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
7.8
5.7
Style: Volume
0.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
5
Body
6
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance12
0Clinch3
0Ground0
Nelson
Sayles
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Sayles
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/24 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Nelson
Sayles
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
22
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Nelson
Sayles
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Sayles
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
NelsonSayles
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedSayles
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the body (71% of attacks) — Sayles absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Sayles targets the head (47% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Sayles
0/0R00/0
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaDecision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
Sayles · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Jordan LeavittSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · Sub · R1
Bryce MitchellSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · Sub · R3
Kyle NelsonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Sheymon MoraesDecision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08