UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Ottawa, Canada
4 May 2019
Featherweight
VS
61%
Nelson
39%
Sayles
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:16
Kyle
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17 – 7
5'11"71" reachSwitch35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
MS
Matt Sayles
8 – 4
Submission Hunter2-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

Nelson holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Sayles has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Sayles throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson
Sayles
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
68"
35
Age
+32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Sayles
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
23.2
41.6
Performance Avg
37.0
39
Quality of Victory
45
36
Momentum Score
22
Nelson
Sayles
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
5
Body
6
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance12
0Clinch3
0Ground0
Nelson
Sayles
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Sayles
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/24 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Nelson
Sayles
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
22
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Nelson
Sayles
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson
Sayles
Striking4.9 / 0.5Volume5.7 / 0.5Grappling1.4 / 8.0Wrestling1.0 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure4.2 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Nelson
Strike Zones
Sayles
Nelson
Attacking
2HEAD5BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD6BODY2LEGS15 absorbed
Sayles
Attacking
7HEAD6BODY2LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD5BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the body (71% of attacks) — Sayles absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Sayles targets the head (47% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson
RND
Sayles
0/0R00/0

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0103.8L4.0L5.0W5.2L6.2L4.5W5.8W5.2W3.4L4.7W3.0L2018-122020-092023-092025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Sayles · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5L5.6W2.5L4.2L2018-082019-052019-122021-12
WinLossTrend

Nelson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Fernando PadillaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

Sayles · Last 4

L · Sub · R2
Jordan LeavittRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · Sub · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 2.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · Sub · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Sheymon MoraesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08

News & Media

Kyle Nelson · Matt Sayles
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